
Tech Bubble
Yeah I know, crazy, right!? But look, there really won’t be another tech bubble, and here’s why:
Follow the money. Way back during the dot-com boom and bust, a bunch of companies went belly-up because they had no business plan and were getting millions for target markets as extravagant as “selling large bags of dog food to middle aged men and women.”
Fast forward to today, and a failing wallstreet and runaway foreclosures have everyone saying the valley and its culture is next to die. But, it isn’t. If you zoom deep into the Web 2.0 world, you’ll find Leo Laporte talking to Jason Calcanis, making Twitter jokes, discussing Robert Scoble’s FriendFeed obsession while broadcasting to thousands of live watchers on UStream. Doesn’t get more valley than that.
Aren’t those things the first to go? Wouldn’t this “worthless” type of content disappear? No, not at all. Leo’s main sponsor, Audible, would be stupid to spend their money elsewhere. If they did cancel their sponsorship, some other smart tech company would take their place. Leo has access to some of the biggest tech geeks in the world, and they’re all obsessively listening and watching his content. Audible would be much smarter to cut off their magazine ad purchases, or radio blurbs before cutting Leo’s show. Magazine and radio ads don’t always turn into profit either. Not to mention, in a recession people are less likely to read/purchase/subscribe to magazines, but are more likely to find ways to get their content for free (aka the web)!
See where I’m going here? I’m following the money… Laporte and his media empire won’t die, because the money will keep coming. Same with the other web companies too. Now, will we see layoffs? YES. Of course we will. Yet, that’s a good thing. There’s no reason for blogs to be getting $10,000,000+ venture capital before they’ve even bought a domain. That sort of behavior is years overdue for death, and a recession will only bring alive proper business principals.
In the end, you’ll find the small blogs and communities deeply rooted in the Web 2.0 alive and well, despite economic hardships. The only reason for that is because the money will keep flowing, because the results will keep showing. Could I be wrong? Certainly, there are many ways you could poke holes in my theory, but I think it’s pretty strong. All those companies that died in the dot-com boom aren’t missed. They had no business models, and certainly didn’t know how to run a business. Today however, we have big and small sites expected to “burst,” but showing advertisers great results and keep the circle going…
Sorry guys, but I really don’t think we’ll be seeing a bubble anytime soon. Feel free to comment your thoughts below…
Oh, and add me on Twitter!